Universal predictability of large avalanches in the Manna sandpile model

Abstract

Substantiated explanations of the unpredictability regarding sandpile models of self-organized criticality (SOC) gave way to efficient forecasts of extremes in a few models. The appearance of extremes requires a preparation phase that ends with general overloading of the system and spatial clustering of the local stress. Here, we relate the predictability of large events to the system volume in the Manna and Bak–Tang–Wiesenfeld sandpiles, which are basic models of SOC. We establish that in the Manna model, the events located to the right of the power-law segment of the size-frequency relationship are predictable and the prediction efficiency is described by the universal linear dependence on the event size scaled by a power-law function of the lattice volume. Our scaling-based approach to predictability contributes to the theory of SOC and may elucidate the forecast of extremes in the dynamics of such systems with SOC as neuronal networks and earthquakes.