Affiliation:
1. School of Mathematics and Statistics, Wuhan University , Wuhan 430072, China
Abstract
Recently, there has been a lot of discussion about the nonlinearity property of contagion processes in epidemic spreading on social networks with various structures. In this paper, we propose a nonlinear contagion model in networked metapopulations to investigate the critical behavior of epidemics with recurrent mobility patterns. First, we build up a discrete-time Markovian chain model to formulate the spreading of susceptible-infected-susceptible-like diseases. Additionally, we develop a practicable framework to analyze the impact of mobility on the epidemic threshold and derive the theoretical condition for the transition of an epidemic from a local to a global scale. This transition is associated with multiple discontinuous phase changes. We validate our analytical results through extensive numerical simulations on both regular and heterogeneous networks. Our findings offer a useful tool to discuss the implementation of prevention strategies such as quarantine and lockdown.
Funder
National Natural Science Foundation of China
Major Research Plan
Project of Research and Development Center for College Mathematics Education
Subject
Applied Mathematics,General Physics and Astronomy,Mathematical Physics,Statistical and Nonlinear Physics