SWSA transformer: A forecasting method of ultra-short-term wind speed from an offshore wind farm using global attention mechanism

Abstract

Accurate ultra-short-term wind speed forecasting is great significance to ensure large scale integration of wind power into the power grid, but the randomness, instability, and non-linear nature of wind speed make it very difficult to be predicted accurately. To solve this problem, shifted window stationary attention transformer (SWSA transformer) is proposed based on a global attention mechanism for ultra-short-term forecasting of wind speed. SWSA transformer can sufficiently extract these complicated features of wind speed to improve the prediction accuracy of wind speed. First, positional embedding and temporal embedding are added at the bottom of the proposed method structure to mark wind speed series, which enables complicated global features of wind speed to be more effectively extracted by attention. Second, a shifted window is utilized to enhance the ability of attention to capture features from the edge sequences. Third, a stationary attention mechanism is applied to not only extract features of wind speed but also optimize the encoder-decoder network for smoothing wind speed sequences. Finally, the predicted values of wind speed are obtained using the calculation in the decoder network. To verify the proposed method, tests are performed utilizing data from an real offshore wind farm. The results show that the proposed method outperforms many popular models evaluated by many indexes including gated recurrent unit, Gaussian process regression, long-short term memory, shared weight long short-term memory network, and shared weight long short-term memory network -Gaussian process regression, in terms of mean absolute error, mean square error (MSE), root mean square error, mean absolute percentage error, mean square percentage error, and coefficient of determination (R2).