Cost-optimal seeding strategy during a botanical pandemic in domesticated fields

Abstract

Botanical pandemics cause enormous economic damage and food shortages around the globe. However, since botanical pandemics are here to stay in the short-medium term, domesticated field owners can strategically seed their fields to optimize each session’s economic profit. In this work, we propose a novel epidemiological-economic mathematical model that describes the economic profit from a field of plants during a botanical pandemic. We describe the epidemiological dynamics using a spatiotemporal extended susceptible-infected-recovered epidemiological model with a non-linear output economic model. We provide an algorithm to obtain an optimal grid-formed seeding strategy to maximize economic profit, given field and pathogen properties. We show that the recovery and basic infection rates have a similar economic influence. Unintuitively, we show that a larger farm does not promise higher economic profit. Our results demonstrate a significant benefit of using the proposed seeding strategy and shed more light on the dynamics of the botanical pandemic.