Climate network analysis of extreme events: Tropical cyclones

Abstract

Climate networks based on surface air temperature data are analyzed to identify distinct signatures of tropical cyclones, which appear in the Indian Ocean. These networks, which are percolating networks, show an abrupt phase transition in the order parameter and the susceptibility during cyclonic events. The behavior seen is compared for the months October–November 2016, when three successive cyclones, viz., cyclone Kyant, cyclone Nada, and cyclone Vardah, were seen, and compared with a year where a single cyclone, cyclone Ockhi, was seen in December 2017. All these cyclones were seen in the Bay of Bengal. The microtransitions, i.e., the locations of jumps in the order parameter, for these two cases show distinct patterns. The signatures of the cyclones can be seen in other quantities like the node degrees and their geographic distributions and other network characterizers. We also compare these with a cyclone, cyclone Ashoba (2015), seen in the Arabian Sea where cyclones are rarer. The networks also show the signatures of precursor behavior, which has implications for further analysis.