Effects of User Dependence on the Prediction Results of Visibility in Fire Simulations

Abstract

To improve the reliability of safety assessments in domestic performance-based designs (PBDs), the problem of the input parameters being dependent on fire-simulation users was quantitatively analyzed. Thus, the results of statistical analyses of domestic PBD reports evaluated over the last 5 years were examined. It was determined that the uncertainties of the input parameters might have a relatively larger influence on the statistical deviations than the measurement uncertainties. Accordingly, a sensitivity analysis was performed by considering the statistical deviations of the input parameters that could greatly influence the prediction results of visibility, which are important for the available safe egress time. The main results were as follows: a large change in visibility was observed owing to deviations of the heat release rate and soot yield. Based on this study, it is expected that more accurate results can be obtained if the objectivity of input parameters determined by user dependence can be secured in domestic PBDs.