Estimativa de escoamento em captação urbana utilizando modelos de rede neural artificial

Abstract

Many types of physical models have been developed for runoff estimation with successful results. However, accurate runoff estimation remains a challenging problem owing to the lack of field data and the complexity of its hydrological process. In this paper, a machine learning method for runoff estimation is presented as an alternative approach to the physical model. Various types of input variables and Artificial Neural Network (ANN) architectures were examined in this study. Results showed that a two-layer network with the tansig activation function and the Levenberg–Marquardt learning algorithm had the best performance. For this architecture, the most effective input vector consists of a catchment perimeter, canal length, slope, runoff coefficient, and rainfall intensity. However, results of multivariate analysis of variance indicated the significant interaction effect of input data and the ANN architecture. Thus, to create a suitable ANN model for runoff estimation, a systematic determination of the input vector is necessary.