Catalogue-based spatio-temporal analysis and evaluation of seismic scenarios in the Talysh zone (Azerbaijan)

Abstract

In this paper, we simulate ground motion shaking of the Talysh zone based on the hybrid stochastic-deterministic approach using catalogue-based spatiotemporal analysis for 1970—2019 from the various local and international sources and the fault source pattern. Data for a homogenous and reliable catalogue are obtained from the International Seismological Center (ISC), European Mediterranean Seismological Center, National Earthquake Information Center, and Republican Center of Seismological Survey at the Azerbaijan National Academy of Science. To evaluate the ground shaking and to characterize its spatial variability, an intensity map was plotted depending on the selected seven active faults and lineaments tracing in the Talysh zone, considering the location, size and length of faults, using empirical relations between magnitude and intensity. The mapping results are presented in terms of intensity distribution. The plotted map shows that shakings with an intensity of VII are observed mainly in the central and western parts of the zone and are predicted to be the highest in the study area. The ground shaking with an intensity VI covers most of the Talysh zone. The magnitude computation results show that a maximum earthquake with Mw=6.2 can be generated by the West Caspian fault. This study applied various seismic input parameters and different approaches to give the basic information to evaluate the range of intensity distribution in seismic scenarios. The results will contribute to implementing more solid analyses for advancing earthquake countermeasure plans and seismic hazard analysis.