Modeling of equipment repair work based on the random risk process

Abstract

Research of the effectiveness of equipment repair work is of great practical and economic importance. This is confirmed by many publications devoted to monitoring and diagnostic tools for various equipment. This work is devoted to modeling the repair work of technological equipment for various purposes, operating under conditions of uncertainty and risk. The proposed study recommends a technology using an insurance fund that performs two functions: 1) accumulates payments at different intervals to carry out repair work: current, emergency, major; 2) pays for these works as necessary. Mathematical description of the organization of equipment repairs is proposed to be based on a random risk process, which in our case describes the state of the insurance fund. To model this process, it is proposed to use a simulation approach that involves creating a modeling program that creates sample values of a special type. These values are then processed in order to obtain indicators of the effectiveness of the repair work. As indicators, the resource-cost and financial risks are proposed for the assessment of which software has been created. Computational experiments using a modeling program made it possible to obtain estimates of the proposed risk indicators and to conclude that, in terms of their reduction, the frequency of payments to the insurance fund should be different, depending on the type of repair work. The introduction of an insurance fund, a description of its state by a random process, a mathematical description of risk indicators for assessing the effectiveness of repair work, the creation of a modeling program based on an event-based approach are the scientific novelty of this work.