THE IMPACT OF INTELLECTUAL FACTORS IN ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT OF A COUNTRY: A CLUSTER ANALYSIS

Abstract

The engine for the development of countries is the accumulation and use of intellectual resources. At the same time, there is considerable scientific interest in the question of which intellectual factors are key to ensuring the development of different countries. The purpose of the analysis is to identify the relationship between resource and performance indicators of intellectualization and GDP dynamics of the country. The resource indicators include: human; financial; intellectual. The following set of indicators relates to the results of intellectual activity already obtained, which should be divided into educational and scientific ones; infrastructure; technological.A cluster analysis of the countries characterized by decisive development trends was made in order to identify and summarize existing dependencies. In total, 44 countries were selected for the study, which are rather heterogeneous in terms of their socio-economic development and geopolitical position.The econometric analysis identified 3 groups of countries characterized by high (cluster 1), medium (cluster 2) and low (cluster 3) GDP per capita during 2005—2015. The 4th Cluster includes rapidly developing Asian emerging countries — China, Hong Kong, Singapore, India, and the Republic of Korea.The economic modelling of impact of resource and resulting factors on the level of economic development is carried out separately for each cluster. As a result of the simulations, the following regularities were revealed for each cluster. For first cluster countries the most significant impact on GDP growth is exerted by the government’s expenditures on education and the research staff growth. For the second cluster countries growth in expenditures on education by 1% leads to a 1% increase in GDP. The third cluster countries are experiencing a significant positive impact from rising expenditures on education in general and on higher education in particular. The fourth cluster countries are experiencing a significant positive impact from the increase in research staff and the increase in public expenditures on higher education. Characteriс of intelligent models of countries of different clusters allows to make realistic prognostic scenarios of their development, taking into account both changes of separate components of model, and efficiency of various economic measures and tools.