THE BANKING SYSTEM OF THE UK: ANALYSIS AND MODELLING

Abstract

Abstract. The paper deals with the analysis of the banking system of the UK. The UK banking sector is quite diverse, and at the same time oligopolistic. The UK exit from the EU is already having a negative impact on main banking indicators. Uncertainty in the banking sector and among the business community is, definitely, very high. This means that banks will have to work on potential and alternative outcomes, depending on their development. The impact of Brexit on banks and banking in the UK will be determined by both government-level arrangements and the response of individual firms to operating conditions changes. At the same time, the realities of the banking environment after the crisis of 2008—2009 mean that it is necessary not only to strengthen market discipline, but also to avoid excessive proliferation and diversification of commercial banks and concentration of the banking system. The post-crisis environment is characterized by a decrease in the number of commercial banks in the UK. However, the reduction in the number of banks does not prevent an increase in the value of the banking system’s assets and an improvement in their quality. Moreover, the paper explores the crisis of 2008—2009 impact on the functioning of the UK banking system (loans to monetary financial institutions, loans to non-monetary financial institutions, loans to non-monetary financial institutions, loans to the central government, deposits of monetary financial institutions, deposits of non-monetary financial institutions, central government deposits). For this purpose, the system of six vector models of autoregression has been constructed. The results of the simulations have shown that all variables have similar dynamics after the crisis shock, except for central government deposits. In the future, the leveling of the shock is observed for these variables starting from the fourth year. There is only an increase in central government deposits, starting from the second year after the shock The other variables do not respond to the crisis shock. Keywords: financial crisis, banks, bank assets, bank liabilities, problem loans, econometric modelling, VaR-models. JEL Classification C39, C51, C52, E44, E47, G01, G17, G21 Formulas: 6; fig.: 6; tabl.: 1; bibl.: 30.