A prospective evaluation of the American College of Surgeons Surgical Risk Calculator as a predictor of complications for breast surgery

Abstract

Background The infection rates for operative management of breast cancer are often unpredictable and higher than average for a clean surgical procedure (0.8% and 28%). We aimed to assess the effectiveness of the American College of Surgeons (ACS) Surgical Risk Calculator (SRC), a preoperative scoring system to calculate the risk of surgical site infection (SSI) and serious complications following breast surgery. Methods Prospective risk scoring using the SRC on 213 patients in the preoperative clinic and the incidence of SSI and serious complications within 30 days postoperatively was prospectively collected. Results The overall SSI rate in our sample was 5% (n=11/210 patients). For a one-unit increase in SRC score, the odds of having SSI increased by a factor of 1.88 (95% CI 1.33 to 2.74). Odds of developing SSI were higher in patients with high Body Mass Index (OR 1.25; 95% 1.13 to 1.40) and American Society of Anesthesiologists score 3 (OR 11.54; 95% CI 2.98 to 43.65). The odds of developing an SSI were ∼19 times higher if a patient had an SRC score >3.0 versus those with an SRC score <3.0. Only 3% (n=4) of patients who had an SRC score of <3.0 experienced SSI, compared with 33% (n=7) for those with a risk score of >3.0. Out of 210 patients, 9 had serious complications (4.2%). Conclusions ACS SRC Score of more than 3 was associated with a higher likelihood of SSI. SRC was able to predict the risk of SSI and serious complications and can be used preoperatively for identification and risk minimisation.