The relationship between temperature and hip and wrist fracture incidence

Abstract

Introduction Predicting when fracture incidence will rise assists in healthcare planning and delivery of preventative strategies. The aim of this study was to investigate the relationship between temperature and the incidence of hip and wrist fractures. Methods Data for adults presenting to our unit with a hip or wrist fracture over a seven and eight-year period respectively were analysed. Incidence rates were calculated and compared with meteorological records. A Poisson regression model was used to quantify the relationship between temperature and fracture rate. Results During the respective study periods, 8,380 patients presented with wrist fractures and 5,279 patients were admitted with hip fractures. All women (≥50 years: p<0.001; <50 years: p<0.001) and men aged ≥50 years (p=0.046) demonstrated an increased wrist fracture rate with reduced temperature. Men aged <50 years also had an increased wrist fracture rate with increased temperature (p<0.001). The hip fracture rate was highest in women aged ≥50 years but was not associated with temperature (p=0.22). In men aged ≥50 years, there was a significant relationship between reduced temperature and increased fracture rate (p<0.001). Conclusions Fragility fracture of the wrist is associated with temperature. Compared with an average summer, an additional 840 procedures are performed for wrist fractures during an average winter in our trust with an additional 798 bed days taken up at a cost of £3.2 million. The winter increase seen in male hip fracture incidence requires approximately 888 surgical procedures, with 18,026 bed days, and costs £7.1 million. Hip fracture incidence in older women is not related to temperature.