Prognostic value of interview rank when hiring for health: staff and nonsense or significant metric?

Abstract

Introduction Core surgical training recruitment works via a centralised national selection process, during which each applicant is assigned an interview performance rank. The aim of this study was to evaluate the relative performance of core surgical trainees related to interview rank (CSTIR) in a single UK statutory education body. Methods Data for two cohorts of core surgical trainees (87 individuals) were analysed prospectively over two years (2018–2021). The primary outcome measures were Membership of the Royal College of Surgeons (MRCS) examination pass and specialty national training number (NTN) appointment. Results The overall MRCS pass rate was 67.8% and the NTN success rate was 43.7%. CSTIR <332 was associated with MRCS pass (88.0% vs 59.7%, odds ratio [OR]: 4.90, p = 0.017) and CSTIR <550 with NTN success (57.4% vs 42.6%, OR: 3.56, p = 0.006). Multivariate analysis revealed that NTN appointment was associated with audit completion (OR: 1.49, p = 0.045), scientific publication (OR: 2.08, p = 0.008), CSTIR (OR: 6.02, p = 0.014), universal annual review of competence progression Outcome 1 (OR: 25.10, p = 0.002) and Improving Surgical Training programme (OR: 108.96, p < 0.001). Conclusions CSTIR was independently associated with conversion to higher surgical specialty NTN, suggesting that the current recruitment process predicts likely success in training.