European Integration Processes in EECCA: Dependencies and Drivers

Abstract

The study was conducted using comparative quantitative and qualitative analysis of World Bank and International Monetary Fund data for 1989-2020 and 2000-2020. Two-factor linear econometric models of economic growth in 11 countries of Central and Eastern Europe (depending on their exports and debt) were built on the basis of such analysis. The study also relied on data from the Pew Research Center's Spring 2019 Global Attitudes Survey regarding EU citizens’ attitudes toward integration. The research findings were used to examine the causes and consequences of European integration for the countries of Central and Eastern Europe. Since 2004, when the first wave of EU enlargement took place, the combined weight of the economies of Central and Eastern Europe in relation to the EU has increased from 6.7% to 10.8% in 2020. On the other hand, none of the countries that have joined the EU have reached Europe-wide labor productivity. Assessment of the possible accession of other countries of the former eastern bloc revealed that Kazakhstan, where productivity in 2020 reached 58.4% of the average achieved in the EU, has the most enabling economic environment. In this context, Kazakhstan outperformed Bulgaria, where such a parameter amounted to 53.5%. During 1995-2000, the multiple of the ratio between the minimum and maximum levels of per capita GDP in the group of countries under study ranged from 6.3 to 7.7 times. Fifteen years after the first wave of accession to the EU, this figure has decreased to 2.5 times. Proposals to reduce regional economic inequality based on the econometric models have been developed.