Spatio-Temporal Analysis Of Urban Expansion And Future Growth Patterns Of Lahore, Pakistan

Abstract

Lahore, a metropolis and 2nd largest city of Pakistan, has been experiencing rapid urban expansion over the past five decades. The socio-economic development and growth of the urban population have caused the rapid increase of urban expansion. The increase in the built-up area of Lahore has seen remarkable growth during the past five decades. This study is aimed at detecting the Spatio-temporal changes in land use land cover and evaluating the urban expansion of Lahore since 1973. The conversion of land to other uses is primarily because of growth in urban population, whereas the increase in economic activities is the central reason for the land-use changes. In this study, temporal Landsat imageries were integrated with demographic data in the GIS environment to quantify the spatial and temporal dynamics of land use land cover (LULC) changes and urban expansion of Lahore city. The supervised image classification of maximum likelihood algorithm was applied on Landsat MSS (1973 and 1980), TM (1990), ETM+ (2000), TM (2010), and OLI/TIRs (2020) images, whereas a postclassification comparison technique was employed to detect changes over time. The spatial and temporal analysis revealed that during the past five decades, the built-up area of Lahore city has expanded by ~ 532 km2. It was found from the analysis that in Lahore city the urban expansion was primarily at the cost of loss of fertile agricultural land, vegetation, and other cultivable land use. The analysis further revealed that the structure and growth pattern of Lahore has mainly followed road network and linear expansion. The results indicate that this accretive urban expansion is attributed to socio-economic, demography, conversion of farmland, rural-urban migration, proximity to transportation routes, and commercial factors. This study envisions for decision-makers and urban planners to devise effective spatial urban planning strategies and check the growth trend of Lahore city.