Evaluation of Lung Cancer Incidence Dynamics in Kyrgyzstan

Abstract

Background: In 2020, more than half of all cases (59.6%) of lung cancer of both sexes and 61.9% of lung cancer deaths were registered in Asia. In Kyrgyzstan, lung cancer is the second most common cancer after stomach cancer (11.2% of all diagnosed malignancies). Objective: The study is to conduct a component analysis of the dynamics of the incidence of lung cancer (LC) in Kyrgyzstan. Methods: Primary data were for registered patients with LC (ICD 10 – C34) in the whole country during the period of 2010-2019. Evaluation of changes in LC incidence in the population of Kyrgyzstan was performed using component analysis according to the methodological recommendations. Results: The study period, 4,931 new cases of LC were recorded. During the studied years an average age of patients with lung cancer was 61.4 years (95%CI=60.9-61.9). Age-related indicators of the incidence of LC had a peak in 65+ years in both sexes (84.9±3.20/0000), male (159.5±6.40/0000) and female (35.5±2.20/0000) population. Trends in the ASIR of LC in the entire population tended to decrease in all age groups. The incidence rate decreased from 8.00/0000 (2010) to 7.20/0000 in 2019 and the overall decline was −0.80/0000, including due to the age structure – ∑ΔA=+1.20/0000, due to the risk of acquiring illness – ∑ΔR=−1.80/0000 and their combined effect – ∑ΔAR=−0.20/0000. The component analysis revealed that the increase in the number of patients with LC was mainly due to the growth of the population (ΔP=+17.9%), changes in its age structure (ΔA=+15.4%). Conclusion: In the Republic of Kyrgyzstan, the incidence of lung cancer is decreasing. According to the component analysis, in general, the increase in the number of patients was due to demographic factors, while the decrease in morbidity was influenced by a decrease in the risk of acquiring illness. The implementation of the results of this study is recommended in the management of anticancer measures for lung cancer.