Evaluation of the Dynamics of Breast Cancer Incidence in Kyrgyzstan: Component Analysis

Abstract

BACKGROUND: In 2020, 19.2 million cases of all types of cancer were registered worldwide, of which 11.7%, that is, 2.3 million, related to breast cancer (BC). The global burden of cancer is increasing worldwide, with the majority of new cancer cases and related deaths occurring in low- and middle-income countries. OBJECTIVE: The study is to conduct a component analysis of the dynamics of the incidence of BC in Kyrgyzstan. METHODS: Primary data were for registered patients with BC (International Classification of Diseases – C50) in the whole country during the period of 2003–2017. Evaluation of changes in BC incidence in the population of Kyrgyzstan was performed using component analysis according to the methodological recommendations. RESULTS: The study period, 7850 new cases of BC were recorded. The incidence rate increased from 17.70°/0000 (2003) to 19.03°/0000 in 2017 and the overall growth was 1.34°/0000, including due to the age structure – ΣΔA=2.08°/0000, due to the risk of acquiring illness – ΣΔR=−0.55°/0000 and their combined effect – ΣΔRA=−0.19°/0000. The component analysis revealed that the increase in the number of patients with BC was mainly due to the growth of the population (ΔP=+71.8%), changes in its age structure (ΔA=+35.5%), and changes associated with the risk of acquiring illness (ΔR=+8.4%). The increase and, in some cases, the decrease in the number of patients in the regions of the republic is due to the influence of demographic factors and risk factors for getting sick. CONCLUSION: The component analysis assessed the role of the influence of demographic factors and the risk of acquiring the disease on the formation of the number of patients and the incidence of BC, while geographical variability was established. The implementation of the results of this study is recommended in the management of anticancer measures for BC.