The role of agriculture in human infectious disease outbreaks

Abstract

Abstract This study uses the available data to explore the temporal and geographical patterns of infectious diseases and their links between human demography, human-induced land-use change, livestock and poultry expansion, and biodiversity loss. Over the last decades, the number of outbreaks of zoonotic and vector-borne diseases increased mostly in the intertropical zone. The increase in cropland, grassland, tree plantation, livestock, poultry, biodiversity at threat (using the Red List index) mostly occurred in the intertropical zone. Using structural equation modeling, significant relationships were observed between disease outbreaks, human demography, livestock (cattle and pigs), poultry (chickens), tree plantation and artificial land expansion as well as with increasing biodiversity at threat. While agricultural expansion is seen as a driver of biodiversity loss and potentially emerging infectious diseases, here we show that cropland and grassland expansion does not appear to enhance disease outbreaks directly, but indirectly and only for cropland on biodiversity loss. The links observed between infectious disease outbreaks, human demography, agriculture, livestock, urbanization and biodiversity should help rethink the global food system in ways that minimize the risk of infectious diseases while preserving biodiversity and contributing to Sustainable Goals.