A density-dependent model with reinvasion for estimating tsetse fly populations (Diptera: Glossinidae) through trapping

Abstract

A simple density-dependent reinvasion model is described and used to estimate tsetse fly populations on the basis of removal trapping experiments. The model was tested on Glossina fuscipes fuscipes Newstead in the Central African Republic and G. palpalis palpalis (Robineau-Desvoidy) in the Republic of Congo (Brazzaville). The density-dependence is modelled by postulating that the inflow of flies each day is proportional to the deficit relative to the equilibrium population. Non-linear least square techniques were used to estimate the following parameters: the daily capture rate, the strength of the density-dependence, and the equilibrium fly population, at the beginning and at the end of the trapping experiment. The model ignores birth and death rates of flies and is applicable only when a rapid decrease in population occurs over a short period (between 10 and 20 days). Over longer periods one could not ignore the natural growth of the populations as well as other more complex density-dependent mechanisms.