Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on mortality dynamics in the Far Eastern Federal District

Abstract

Introduction. New viral respiratory infections in humans make it possible to speak of corona viruses as extremely dangerous human pathogens. They are characterized by a high mortality rate and pose a significant medical and social threat to society due to life-threatening complications of the disease. In this regard, it seems necessary to answer the questions about the dynamics of mortality of the population of the region for different classes of ICD-10 in the prepandemic and pandemic period, including various nosological forms of respiratory diseases. Aim. To assess the degree of influence of the pandemic of the new respiratory coronavirus infection COVID-19 on the mortality rate of the population for various classes of ICD-10, including the class “Diseases of the respiratory system” in the Far Eastern Federal District.Materials and methods. To implement the tasks of the study, a complex of analytical, epidemiological and statistical studies was carried out. Methods used: descriptive statistics, epidemiological analysis and monitoring; mathematical; structural and comparative analysis, methods of time series analysis and content analysis of publications on the problem. Epidemiological and statistical assessment of mortality was carried out on the basis of ICD-10 using the database of the Federal State Statistics Service for 1999-2020 in the territory of the Far Eastern Federal District. For the analysis and processing of statistical information, modern information systems and computer programs (MS Excel-2016) were used. Results. The pandemic of COVID-19 has had a significant impact on the level and structure of mortality across the entire spectrum of the main causes of death, and its magnitude (98.8 per 100,000, 2020), as a new cause of death, exceeds the whole the class of causes of death ICD-10 (J00-J99) by 33.3%, changing the pace and direction of demographic processes in Russia. At the same time, the dynamics of mortality due to respiratory diseases is unprecedented, the level of which in the Russian Federation in the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic increased by 38.8%, and in the Far Eastern Federal District – by 27.7% against the background of the previous long-term stable a downward trend in mortality rates. Especially high growth rates of mortality rates are observed in pneumonia, the level of which has increased by 3.5 times over the last decade, and among city residents – by 4.2 times (Amur Region). Features of the socio-economic and natural-climatic living conditions of the population of the region determine a significant differentiation of regions in terms of mortality rates, including due to respiratory diseases, the gradients of which among the subjects of the Far Eastern Federal District in the first year of the pandemic period (2020) amounted to 2.5 times with a minimum the level in the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) (40.9 per 100,000 population) and the maximum – in the Jewish Autonomous Region (101.7 per 100,000 population), which indicates the ambiguous degree of influence of the new viral infection on the dynamics of mortality. At the same time, the variability in mortality rates due to respiratory diseases in the previous period (1999-2019) was even more pronounced, and among the subjects of the Far Eastern Federal District, during this period, higher mortality rates were also demonstrated, which are not even comparable to the current level of the pandemic period. These circumstances require a detailed study and a substantive analysis of the degree of influence of a COVID-19 on the mortality rate of the population using mechanisms and methods for its detection, record and registration. Conclusion. The pandemic of COVID19 had a significant impact on the level and structure of mortality across the entire spectrum of major causes of death, especially in the ICD-10 class “Respiratory diseases”, changing the pace and direction of demographic processes.