Modeling the Free Inclinations of the Classical Kuiper Belt with the von Mises–Fisher Distribution

Abstract

Abstract The orientations of orbital planes of minor planets are directional random variables. Their free inclination is the deviation of the orbit plane from the plane forced by the major planets. We construct a model of the distribution of free inclinations of classical Kuiper Belt objects (CKBOs) based on the von Mises–Fisher (vMF) distribution function, the analog of the normal distribution for directional statistics. The CKBOs are known to have a “cold” component of orbit planes concentrated near the forced plane and a more widely dispersed “hot” component. Adopting a model with a linear combination of two vMF functions, we find that the cold and hot components account for 57% and 43%, characterized by widths of 1.°7 and 12.°9, respectively. This model improves upon previous models based on smaller observational samples and empirical choices of functional forms for inclination distributions.