Using CME Progenitors to Assess CME Geoeffectiveness

Abstract

Abstract There have been a few previous studies claiming that the effects of geomagnetic storms strongly depend on the orientation of the magnetic cloud portion of coronal mass ejections (CMEs). Aparna & Martens, using halo-CME data from 2007 to 2017, showed that the magnetic field orientation of filaments at the location where CMEs originate on the Sun can be used to credibly predict the geoeffectiveness of the CMEs being studied. The purpose of this study is to extend their survey by analyzing the halo-CME data for 1996–2006. The correlation of filament axial direction on the solar surface and the corresponding Bz signatures at L1 are used to form a more extensive analysis for the results previously presented by Aparna & Martens. This study utilizes Solar and Heliospheric Observatory Extreme-ultraviolet Imaging Telescope 195 Å, Michelson Doppler Imager magnetogram images, and Kanzelhöhe Solar Observatory and Big Bear Solar Observatory Hα images for each particular time period, along with ACE data for interplanetary magnetic field signatures. Utilizing all these, we have found that the trend in Aparna & Martens’ study of a high likelihood of correlation between the axial field direction on the solar surface and Bz orientation persists for the data between 1996 and 2006, for which we find a match percentage of 65%.