Massive Black Hole Binaries from the TNG50-3 Simulation. II. Using Dual AGNs to Predict the Rate of Black Hole Mergers

Abstract

Abstract Dual active galaxy nuclei (dAGNs) trace the population of post-merger galaxies and are the precursors to massive black hole (MBH) mergers, an important source of gravitational waves that may be observed by the Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA). In Paper I of this series, we used the population of ≈2000 galaxy mergers predicted by the TNG50-3 simulation to seed semi-analytic models of the orbital evolution and coalescence of MBH pairs with initial separations of ≈1 kpc. Here, we calculate the dAGN luminosities and separations of these pairs as they evolve in post-merger galaxies, and show how the coalescence fraction of dAGNs changes with redshift. We find that because of the several gigayear-long dynamical friction timescale for orbital evolution, the fraction of dAGNs that eventually end in an MBH merger grows with redshift and exceeds 50% beyond z dAGN ≈ 1. Dual AGNs in galaxies with bulge masses ≲1010 M ⊙, or consisting of near-equal-mass MBHs, evolve more quickly and have higher than average coalescence fractions. At any redshift, dAGNs observed with small separations (≲0.7 kpc) have a higher probability of merging before z = 0 than more widely separated systems. Radiation feedback effects can significantly reduce the number of MBH mergers, and this could be manifested as a larger than expected number of widely separated dAGNs. We present a method to estimate the MBH coalescence rate as well as the potential LISA detection rate given a survey of dAGNs. Comparing these rates to the eventual LISA measurements will help determine the efficiency of dynamical friction in post-merger galaxies.