Influence of teleconnections on observations and projections of hydroclimatic extremes caused by tropical cyclones in the arid climate of Baja California Sur

Abstract

This study focuses on identifying modulations by large-scale synoptic, inter-annual, and decadal oscillations on the extreme rainfall in the state of Baja California Sur, and provides statistical models to forecast future evolution. The region is arid, with 70% of precipitation from July to October, and is affected by tropical systems that may lead to moderate and even intense precipitation. Seven clusters were obtained using the Ward method applied to quality-controlled climatological data from 1950 to 2014. Normalized extreme precipitation (95th percentile) shows an overall increase in the last decades (1995-2004 and 2005-2014), with total values much larger than in any of the previous 50 years. Multivariate linear models (MLMs) were developed based on indices for the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in Region 3.4, which were shown to modulate extreme precipitation. The MLM based on PDO, ENSO, and the fraction of tropical cyclones (TC) within a radius of 300 km to the peninsula (M4), has a better correlation with observed rainfall than the historical simulations of the Coupled-Model Inter-comparison Project version 5 (CMIP5) models; moreover, M4 outperforms all other MLMs in six of the seven clusters. Projections were evaluated based on the MLMs and CMIP5 simulations under scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 for mid- and long-term horizons. Model M4 projects more extreme events than CMIP5, and all MLM projects negative trends in extreme precipitation from 2041 to 2100 under RCP8.5. This study provides valuable information on future extreme precipitation in an arid region in the presence of steep topography, which could result in potential damage to ecosystems and infrastructure.