Atlantic and Pacific sea surface temperature correlations with precipitation over northern Mexico

Abstract

Three main sea surface temperature (SST) oscillations in the Atlantic and Pacific oceans have shown to play a key role in modulating rainfall variability over northern Mexico. Nevertheless, only a few studies have explored these teleconnections under a climate classification approach. In this study, the effects of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), the Oceanic El Niño Index (ONI) and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), over precipitation in dry and semi-dry areas of the Baja California peninsula and the state of Tamaulipas are analyzed for the period 1951-2021. Pearson and Spearman correlations are compared and proven to have equivalent results despite the different physical conditions of the two territories. The results show several statistically significant correlations indicating that for the study regions, the correlation is negative throughout the year between the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and AMO in latitudes above 28º N, while it is negative (positive) during the months of January-April (October-November) in lower latitudes. Simultaneously, the correlation is positive between SPI and ONI/PDO in eastern and western regions of northern Mexico, and it is negative between SPI-ONI and SPI-PDO in the months of August-September over the eastern side. The information generated throughout this study, in conjunction with the understanding of regional climate dynamics, can help to comprehend with greater certainty the effects of these teleconnections.