When will autonomous ships arrive? A technological forecasting perspective

Abstract

Autonomous ships have received significant attention in recent years. However, they are not widely adopted in the maritime industry yet. A wide range of predictions have been made about when the technological change will occur. This paper analyses technologies that are critical to autonomous shipping and forecasts a range of times when they will reach technical and economic viability. The researched technologies are data transfer, navigation, cargo handling, fuel cells and diesel engines. The results indicate that the GPS precision required for autonomous mooring is not yet technically feasible and the expected feasibility time frame is between 2030 and 2058. The remaining technologies all show technological feasibility, but not yet economic viability. The forecasted range for economic viability of data transfer is a range of 2026-2041, while cost of automated cargo handling will reach the current expense levels somewhere between 2037 and 2101. Finally, the cost of a medium speed diesel engine and an LT-PEMFC Fuel Cell will be approximately equal somewhere between 2025 and 2060.