The German energy-climate plan: A window on the future difficulties of the Energiewende

Abstract

Germany's NECP 2023 is a long-awaited and particularly complex exercise. It is eagerly awaited because it comes after the energy shock of 2022, and at a time when the long-term consequences for Germany will be difficult to overcome. Complex because, even before the energy crisis, Germany's 2030 targets looked particularly challenging, requiring it to double the rate of decarbonisation of the previous decade (while completing the phase-out of nuclear power). In this context, the autumn 2023 version is clearly a "work in progress" which, while covering the five dimensions of the exercise, reveals significant limitations: in the precision of the proposed measures and, despite these imprecisions, in the assessment of their scope, leaving little hope of achieving the decarbonisation objectives by 2030 (as also considered by the Federal Court of Auditors). Admittedly, this observation is not entirely specific to Ger- many, but given the position of this economy within the EU, broader questions are raised about the progress towards Fit-for-55.