Production and Consumption of Staple Food Crops and the Separation of the Agricultural and Nonagricultural Sectors in China, 1952–2010: A Comparison with Japan, the United States, and South Korea (20世纪中期以来中国粮食生产、消费与产业分工关系解读：基于Agr与Nagr表达式的分析——兼与日美韩相比较)

Abstract

Correlative data from China, Japan, the United States, and South Korea show that since 1950, if the percentage of grain imported into a country is low, the growth of agricultural labor productivity is relatively high, which is the precondition for the separation (or further separation) between the agricultural and nonagricultural sectors. In China, agricultural labor productivity was low before the mid-1980s, a factor that contributed to rural poverty. Since the mid-1990s, however, the diet of the people of China has included a greater quantity of meat, eggs, and milk. At the same time, there has been a shortage of feed grain and the percentage of imported grain has begun to grow rapidly. If the proportion of imported grain continues to grow, the efficiency illusion that took place in Japan and South Korea will be repeated in China in the near future. Currently, China’s agriculture is faced with a series of imminent tasks that include promoting agricultural science and technology, accelerating the substitution of feed grains, and making sure that there will be no further loss of arable land. 20世纪中后期以来，中日美韩四国的数据表明，在粮食进口比重不大的情况下，农业劳动生产效率的大幅度提高是农业和非农产业分工（或分工进一步加强）的基础条件。在中国，1980年代中期之前，由于农业劳动生产效率较低，出现了长期的温饱问题和知青下乡问题。1990年代中期以来，在人们的饮食构成中，肉蛋奶数量趋高，饲料粮出现短缺，粮食进口比重快速增长。按照目前的趋势，如果粮食进口比重继续增长，在日韩出现的“效率假象”，将会在中国上演。进一步提高农业科技水平，加快饲料粮的替代，同时，确保18亿亩土地红线不被侵蚀，是中国农业面临的迫切任务。 (This article is in English.)