Predicting spatial and temporal effects of climate change on the South American lizard genus Teius (Squamata: Teiidae)

Abstract

Abstract The consequences of past or future climate change have been studied in many physical and biological systems, and their effects could change the ecology and spatial distribution of suitable areas for a wide variety of organisms. We analyzed the environmental and geographic space of the current suitable area projecting these conditions into Mid-Holocene and 2050 RCP8.5 scenarios to quantify whether climate change would affect the distribution and size of environmental and geographic space for lizard species of the genus Teius. The potentially suitable geographic area for the Mid-Holocene was found to be smaller than today for T. oculatus (−29.55%) and for T. teyou (−6.82%), but for T. suquiensis it was inferred as a larger suitable area (+26%). For the future scenario all species showed a decrease in the potentially suitable area compared to the present (T. oculatus = − 9.30%, T. teyou = − 0.79%, T. suquiensis = − 37.58%). The PCA axes that in the environmental space showed a higher contribution for PC1-2 in Mid-Holocene and Present were mostly related to temperature and for PC3 with altitude variables, for the 2050 scenario were temperature for PC1, precipitation for PC2 and altitude-temperature for PC3. The current Teius’ potentially suitable geographic space results versus the other temporal forecasts, showed specific differences in magnitude changes. This work illustrates how ectothermic organisms might have to face major changes in their environmental and geographic space as a consequence of the effect of climate changes.