Public Means for Private Ends? Local Electoral Incentives and Public Welfare Expenditures

Abstract

Abstract The literature on distributive politics explores changes in public expenditures vis-à-vis the electoral incentives of politicians. In theory, term-limited politicians are not inclined to increase spending in the absence of re-election prospects. The Philippine case shows otherwise. Guided by theories and studies on Philippine local politics and the effects of term limits on electoral incentives, this article argues that even term-limited politicians can be driven to increase spending if they have a family member intended to succeed them in an upcoming election. Estimates from regression models that used panel data on public expenditures and elections in Philippine provinces and cities from 1992 to 2018 confirm this. Overall, this study provides insights on how electoral incentives and public spending behavior of term-limited politicians change once membership in a political family is factored in.