The War in Ukraine and Arab Gulf States’ Foreign Policy Shifts

Abstract

Abstract This paper discusses geopolitical shifts in the international order with regard to divergent perceptions and interests on the war in Ukraine between western states and the Gulf Cooperation Council states (gcc), specifically the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). These two leading gcc states now prioritise their own national interests by valuing multipolar partnerships, rather than solely relying on strong strategic ties with the West and US. The article aims to explore to what extent the war in Ukraine reveals a new phase in the power balance between the west and the Arab Gulf states. The initial outcomes of the war have already weakened Russia’s global status and forced Moscow to redirect its strategy towards the east, particularly China. This has also led to increased military cooperation between Russian and Iranian, as well as a rapprochement due to the weight of western economic sanctions imposed on both states. Concurrently, China’s significant role in world policy has become more evident through its direct political involvement in the restoration of Saudi-Iranian diplomatic relations, as seen in the agreement signed in Beijing on 10 March 2023. With the war in Ukraine significantly impacting the global energy market and regional power dynamics, the multipolar momentum gives the advantage to Gulf states that realise that this is an opportune time to capitalise on taking autonomous regional initiatives and fostering diversified partnerships from the west to the east.