RELATION BETWEEN PERIODS OF SEISMIC ACTIVATION IN THE SEISMICALLY ACTIVE ZONES OF UZBEKISTAN AND THE OCCURRENCE OF STRONGEST EARTHQUAKES IN CENTRAL ASIA

Abstract

method for studying the influence of seismic activation, which began in one of the seismically active zones, on the possibility of seismic activation in other seismically active zones of region is proposed. The method is based on: studying the time function of released seismic energy in each seismically active zone; choosing of its threshold values; specifying an alarm function and estimating the statistical significance of the difference between a share of earthquakes from the various seismically active zones falling within the alarm intervals and a share of the alarm time in this seismically active zone. It was established which of the Central Asian seismically active zones affect the activation of the main Uzbekistan seismically active zones the most. Inversely, for each of the most significant Central Asian seismically active zones it was established on which one of the Uzbekistan seismically active zones Central Asian zones have the greatest impact. It was suggested that synchronous seismic activation manifestations are observed in seismically active zones of close strike with geometrically similar active fault lines and located close to each other. The revealed relationships are important for understanding the interaction nature of various seismotectonic structures, but they cannot be used in forecasting as a determinative factor. This information has to be used in a complex with data of prognostic monitoring in various geophysical fields. Activation of Central Asian highly potential zones can act as a trigger in certain seismically active zones of Uzbekistan, where the significant supply of elastic energy is already accumulated.