An analysis of the statistical relationship between precious metals prices and other monetary policy variables and inflation in South Africa

Abstract

This study looked at the statistical relationship between precious metals prices, oil prices, money supply, interest rates and exchange ratesandinflation. It particularly looked at how inflation was influenced by these variables over time. The findings in this study were consistent with the hypothesis that the values of these variables influence inflation in the short-term and long-term. One of the findingsthat could be of interest especially for South Africa indicates that precious metalsprice changes, especially gold,could act as signals of pending changes to inflation and are also statistically related to interest rate movements. However, it was also found that the relationship between exchange rates movements during the financial crisis era between 2008 and 2010 did affect the other variables like prime, precious metals prices and oil prices which led to significant spikes in inflation. It should be emphasized that these finding of a statistical relationship is only consistent with observed data pertaining to South Africa and not proof of such behaviour prevailing in other markets. Even then, such a conclusion would require the isolation of a number of country specific behaviours and factors that may be correlated with precious metals prices, oil prices, exchange rates and interest rates and that may simultaneously affect inflation, which this study did not factor in. However, knowledge of statistical relationships can help in informing monetary policy responses and designing appropriate portfolio strategies although these findings do not provide unambiguous proof of any underlying behavioural hypothesis.