Long-term trends in the greenhouse gas emissions from the Canadian dairy industry

Abstract

Estimates of the efficiency of mitigation measures on reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the agricultural sector are required. In this paper, recently calculated dairy GHG emissions for 2001 were extrapolated back to 1981 for census years using an index. The index was verified by comparing it with estimates based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) methodology for 1991. The index agreed with the IPCC estimates within 1% for methane and 4% for nitrous oxide on a national scale with no region having a difference of more than 5% for methane. For nitrous oxide, all regions were within 10%, except British Columbia, where the index was 19% too high. The index indicates that GHG emissions from primary milk production within the Canadian dairy industry have decreased by about 49% since 1981, mainly due to a 57% reduction in the dairy cow population during that period. The GHG emissions per kilogram of milk decreased by 35%, that is from 1.22 kg CO2eq kg-1 milk to 0.91 kg CO2eq kg-1 milk. Because this study took into account the energy-related CO2 emissions from all the major farm inputs (fertilizer and fossil fuel), there was little risk of hidden GHG emissions in the emission intensity calculation. This study demonstrates that where lack of input data restricts historical application of simulation models, a semi-empirical index approach can yield valuable results. Key words: Greenhouse gas, dairy industry, index, intensity indicator