Predictive value of the National Early Warning Score 2 for hospitalised patients with viral respiratory illness is improved by the addition of inspired oxygen fraction as a weighted variable

Abstract

ObjectivesThe National Early Warning Score 2 (NEWS2) is validated for predicting acute deterioration, however, the binary grading of inspired oxygen fraction (FiO2) may limit performance. We evaluated the incorporation of FiO2as a weighted categorical variable on NEWS2 prediction of patient deterioration.SettingTwo hospitals at a single medical centre, Guy’s and St Thomas’ NHS Foundation Trust.DesignRetrospective cohort of all ward admissions, with a viral respiratory infection (SARS-CoV-2/influenza).Participants3704 adult ward admissions were analysed between 01 January 2017 and 31 December 2021.MethodsThe NEWS-FiO2score transformed FiO2into a weighted categorical variable, from 0 to 3 points, substituting the original 0/2 points. The primary outcome was a composite of cardiac arrest, unplanned critical care admission or death within 24 hours of the observation. Sensitivity, positive predictive value (PPV), number needed to evaluate (NNE) and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) were calculated. Failure analysis for the time from trigger to outcome was compared by log-rank test.ResultsThe mean age was 60.4±19.4 years, 52.6% were men, with a median Charlson Comorbidity of 0 (IQR 3). The primary outcome occurred in 493 (13.3%) patients, and the weighted FiO2score was strongly associated with the outcome (p=<0.001). In patients receiving supplemental oxygen, 78.5% of scores were reclassified correctly and the AUROC was 0.81 (95% CI 0.81 to 0.81) for NEWS-FiO2versus 0.77 (95% CI 0.77 to 0.77) for NEWS2. This improvement persisted in the whole cohort with a significantly higher failure rate for NEWS-FiO2 (p=<0.001). At the 5-point threshold, the PPV increased by 22.0% (NNE 6.7) for only a 3.9% decrease in sensitivity.ConclusionTransforming FiO2into a weighted categorical variable improved NEWS2 prediction for patient deterioration, significantly improving the PPV. Prospective external validation is required before institutional implementation.