Paired risk scores to predict ischaemic and bleeding risk twenty-eight days to one year after an acute coronary syndrome

Abstract

ObjectiveThe recommended duration of dual anti-platelet therapy (DAPT) following acute coronary syndrome (ACS) varies from 1 month to 1 year depending on the balance of risks of ischaemia and major bleeding. We designed paired ischaemic and major bleeding risk scores to inform this decision.MethodsNew Zealand (NZ) patients with ACS investigated with coronary angiography are recorded in the All NZ ACS Quality Improvement registry and linked to national health datasets. Patients were aged 18–84 years (2012–2020), event free at 28 days postdischarge and without atrial fibrillation. Two 28-day to 1-year postdischarge multivariable risk prediction scores were developed: (1) cardiovascular mortality/rehospitalisation with myocardial infarction or ischaemic stroke (ischaemic score) and (2) bleeding mortality/rehospitalisation with bleeding (bleeding score).FindingsIn 27 755 patients, there were 1200 (4.3%) ischaemic and 548 (2.0%) major bleeding events. Both scores were well calibrated with moderate discrimination performance (Harrell’s c-statistic 0.75 (95% CI, 0.74 to 0.77) and 0.69 (95% CI, 0.67 to 0 .71), respectively). Applying these scores to the 2020 European Society of Cardiology ACS antithrombotic treatment algorithm, the 31% of the cohort at elevated (>2%) bleeding and ischaemic risk would be considered for an abbreviated DAPT duration. For those at low bleeding risk, but elevated ischaemic risk (37% of the cohort), prolonged DAPT may be appropriate, and for those with low bleeding and ischaemic risk (29% of the cohort) short duration DAPT may be justified.ConclusionWe present a pair of ischaemic and bleeding risk scores specifically to assist clinicians and their patients in deciding on DAPT duration beyond the first month post-ACS.