Using clinical risk models to predict outcomes: what are we predicting and why?

Abstract

Clinical risk prediction models can support decision making in emergency medicine, but directing intervention towards high-risk patients may involve a flawed assumption. This concepts paper examines prognostic clinical risk prediction and specifically describes the potential impact of treatment effects in model development studies. Treatment effects may lead to models failing to achieve the aim of identifying the patients most likely to benefit from intervention, and may instead identify patients who are unlikely to benefit from intervention. The paper provides practical advice to help clinicians who wish to use clinical prediction scores to assist clinical judgement rather than dictate clinical decision making.