Predictive value of the new ESGO-ESTRO-ESP endometrial cancer risk classification on survival and recurrence in the Danish population

Abstract

ObjectiveTo compare the performance of the new ESGO-ESTRO-ESP (European Society of Gynecological Oncology-European Society for Radiotherapy & Oncology-European Society for Pathology) 2020 risk classification system with the previous 2016 risk classification in predicting survival and patterns of recurrence in the Danish endometrial cancer population.MethodsThis Danish national cohort study included 4516 patients with endometrial cancer treated between 2005 and 2012. Five-year Kaplan–Meier adjusted and unadjusted survival estimates and actuarial recurrence rates were calculated for the previous and the new classification systems.ResultsIn the 2020 risk classification system, 81.0% of patients were allocated to low, intermediate, or high-intermediate risk compared with 69.1% in the 2016 risk classification system, mainly due to reclassification of 44.5% of patients previously classified as high risk to either intermediate or especially high-intermediate risk. The survival of the 2020 high-risk group was significantly lower, and the recurrence rate, especially the non-local recurrence rate, was significantly higher than in the 2016 high risk group (2020/2016, overall survival 59%/66%; disease specific 69%/76%; recurrence 40.5%/32.3%, non-local 34.5%/25.8%). Survival and recurrence rates in the other risk groups and the decline in overall and disease-specific survival rates from the low risk to the higher risk groups were similar in patients classified according to the 2016 and 2020 systems.ConclusionThe new ESGO-ESTRO-ESP 2020 risk classification system allocated fewer patients to the high risk group than the previous risk classification system. The main differences were lower overall and disease-specific survival and a higher recurrence rate in the 2020 high risk group. The introduction of the new 2020 risk classification will potentially result in fewer patients at high risk and allocation to the new high risk group will predict lower survival, potentially allowing more specific selection for postoperative adjuvant therapy.