Trends in public health emergencies in the WHO African Region: an analysis of the past two decades public health events from 2001 to 2022

Abstract

The African Region reports the heaviest burden of public health emergencies globally. This paper presents an exploratory analysis of public health events data collected the past 22 years in the WHO Africa region, to explore patterns and trends that can inform public health strategies, policy changes and develop appropriate tools to improve disease surveillance, preparedness and response to public health emergencies. A suite of exploratory data analysis methods combining time series analysis, summary statistics, temporal visualisations, geographic information system (GIS) mapping, trend analysis and statistical tests were used to derive patterns and trends from the data. An in-depth analysis of zoonotic disease outbreaks by geography and time was explored. The analysis also focused on whether these outbreaks were viral haemorrhagic related or had other characteristics. Results reveal that between 2001 and 2022, a total of 2234 public health events have been recorded in the WHO African Region of which 1886 events (84.4%) were substantiated. The paper confirms an average of 102 public health events reported yearly during the last 22 years time frame. The large majority (92%) of the substantiated events were infectious diseases (n=1730), 30% (n=566) are zoonoses and 5% (n=95) are humanitarian crises such as disaster events and conflicts. The number of zoonotic disease outbreaks has significantly increased (by 87%) between the past two decades, from 2003 to 2012 period (M=18.6, SD=4.8) and 2013–2022 period (M=34.7, SD=14); t(18) = 3.4, p=0.0032. This analysis shows growing challenges faced in the Africa region every year. One-health approach and its coordination across multiple sectors, disciplines and communities is critical to achieve the objectives.