A pyramid model to describe changing decision making under high uncertainty during the COVID-19 pandemic

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic put healthcare systems, hospitals and medical personal under great pressure. Based on observations in Germany, we theorise a general model of rapid decision-making that makes sense of the growing complexity, risks and impact of missing evidence. While adapting decision-making algorithms, management, physicians, nurses and other healthcare professionals had to move into uncharted territory while addressing practical challenges and resolving normative (legal and ethical) conflicts. During the pandemic, this resulted in decisional uncertainties for healthcare professionals. We propose an idealised risk-based model that anticipates these shifts in decision-making procedures and underlying value frameworks. The double pyramid model visualises foreseeable procedural adaptations. This does not only help practitioners to secure operational continuity in a crisis but also contributes to improving the conceptual underpinnings of the resilience of healthcare during the next pandemic or similar future crises situations.