Establishment of prediction models to predict survival among patients with cervical cancer based on socioeconomic factors: a retrospective cohort study based on the SEER Database

Abstract

ObjectiveTo construct and validate predictive models based on socioeconomic factors for predicting overall survival (OS) in cervical cancer and compare them with the American Joint Council on Cancer (AJCC) staging system.DesignRetrospective cohort study.Setting and participantsWe extracted data from 5954 patients who were diagnosed with cervical cancer between 2007 and 2011 from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Database. This database holds data related to cancer incidence from 18 population-based cancer registries in the USA.Outcome measures1-year and 5-year OS.ResultsOf the total 5954 patients, 5820 patients had 1-year mortality and 5460 patients had 5-year mortality. Lower local education level [Hazard ratios (HR): 1.15, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.04 to 1.27, p= 0.005] and being widowed (HR 1.28, 95% CI 1.06 to 1.55, p=0.009) were associated with a worse OS for patients with cervical cancer. Having insurance (HR 0.75, 95% CI 0.62 to 0.90, p=0.002), earning a local median annual income of ≥US$56 270 (HR 0.83, 95% CI 0.75 to 0.92, p<0.001) and being married (HR 0.79, 95% CI 0.69 to 0.89, p<0.001) were related to better OS in patients with cervical cancer. The predictive models based on socioeconomic factors and the AJCC staging system had a favourable performance for predicting OS in cervical cancer compared with the AJCC staging system alone.ConclusionOur proposed predictive models exhibit superior predictive performance, which may highlight the potential clinical application of incorporating socioeconomic factors in predicting OS in cervical cancer.