Impact of loss-to-follow-up on cancer survival estimates for small populations: a simulation study using Hospital-Based Cancer Registries in Japan

Abstract

ObjectivesThe accuracy of the ascertainment of vital status impacts the validity of cancer survival. This study assesses the potential impact of loss-to-follow-up on survival in Japan, both nationally and in the samples seen at individual hospitals.DesignSimulation studySetting and participantsData of patients diagnosed in 2007, provided by the Hospital-Based Cancer Registries of 177 hospitals throughout Japan.Primary and secondary outcome measuresWe performed simulations for each cancer site, for sample sizes of 100, 1000 and 8000 patients, and for loss-to-follow-up ranging from 1% to 5%. We estimated the average bias and the variation in bias in survival due to loss-to-follow-up.ResultsThe expected bias was not associated with the sample size (with 5% loss-to-follow-up, about 2.1% for the cohort including all cancers), but a smaller sample size led to more variable bias. Sample sizes of around 100 patients, as may be seen at individual hospitals, had very variable bias: with 5% loss-to-follow-up for all cancers, 25% of samples had a bias of <1.02% and 25% of samples had a bias of > 3.06%.ConclusionSurvival should be interpreted with caution when loss-to-follow-up is a concern, especially for poor-prognosis cancers and for small-area estimates.