Prognostic performance of the ‘DICA’ endoscopic classification and the ‘CODA’ score in predicting clinical outcomes of diverticular disease: an international, multicentre, prospective cohort study

Abstract

ObjectiveTo investigate the predictive value of the Diverticular Inflammation and Complication Assessment (DICA) classification and to develop and validate a combined endoscopic-clinical score predicting clinical outcomes of diverticulosis, named Combined Overview on Diverticular Assessment (CODA).DesignA multicentre, prospective, international cohort study.Setting43 gastroenterology and endoscopy centres located in Europe and South America.Participants2215 patients (2198 completing the study) at the first diagnosis of diverticulosis/diverticular disease were enrolled. Patients were scored according to DICA classifications.InterventionsA 3-year follow-up was performed.Main outcome measuresTo predict the acute diverticulitis and the surgery according to DICA classification. Survival methods for censored observation were used to develop and validate a novel combined endoscopic-clinical score for predicting diverticulitis and surgery (CODA score).ResultsThe 3-year cumulative probability of diverticulitis and surgery was of 3.3% (95% CI 2.5% to 4.5%) in DICA 1, 11.6% (95% CI 9.2% to 14.5%) in DICA 2 and 22.0% (95% CI 17.2% to 28.0%) in DICA 3 (p<0.001), and 0.15% (95% CI 0.04% to 0.59%) in DICA 1, 3.0% (95% CI 1.9% to 4.7%) in DICA 2 and 11.0% (95% CI 7.5% to 16.0%) in DICA 3 (p<0.001), respectively. The 3-year cumulative probability of diverticulitis and surgery was ≤4%, and ≤0.7% in CODA A; <10% and <2.5% in CODA B; >10% and >2.5% in CODA C, respectively. The CODA score showed optimal discrimination capacity in predicting the risk of surgery in the development (c-statistic: 0.829; 95% CI 0.811 to 0.846) and validation cohort (c-statistic: 0.943; 95% CI 0.905 to 0.981).ConclusionsDICA classification has a significant role in predicting the risk of diverticulitis and surgery in patients with diverticulosis, which is significantly enhanced by the CODA score.Trial registration numberNCT02758860.