The Future of European Onshore Wind Energy Potential: Detailed Distribution and Simulation of Advanced Turbine Designs

Abstract

Considering the need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, onshore wind energy is certain to play a major role in future energy systems. This topic has received significant attention from the research community, producing many estimations of Europe's onshore wind potential for capacity and generation. Despite this focus, previous estimates have relied on distribution assumptions and simulation schemes that summarily under predict both the amount of available future wind capacity as well as its performance. Foremost in this regard is the common use of contemporary, or at least near-future, turbine designs which are not fitting for a far-future context. To fulfill this role, an improved, transparent, and fully reproducible work flow is presented for determining European onshore wind potential. Within a scenario of turbine cost and design in 2050, 13.5 TWof capacity is found to be available, allowing for 34.4 PWh of generation. By sorting the explicitly-placed potential generation locations by their expected generation cost, national relations between turbine cost and performance versus a desired capacity are exposed. In this way, it is shown that all countries possess some potential for onshore wind energy generation below 4 €ct kWh-1. and, furthermore, that it is unlikely for these costs to exceed 6 €ct kWh-1.