GIS Based Multi-Criteria Land Suitability Assessment for Future Urban Development in The Country Park Peripheries of Hong Kong

Abstract

In recent years, land supply in Hong Kong has fallen sharply and fails to keep pace with the growth of population and number of households. Land shortage becomes urgent and dire. With the inadequate provision of residential land, housing supply is also adversely affected.Insufficient housing supply leads to surging property and rental price in the private market. According to the Rating and Valuation Department (RVD), the overall private domestic price index peaked in June 2017 at 336.1. Keen housing demand is also observed in the private rental market. RVD statistics showed that the domestic rental index also reached the peak at 183.6 in June 2017 and the vacancy rate of about 3.8% as at the end-2016, which is much lower than the average vacancy rate of 5% from 1996 to 2015 (Development Bureau, 2017).In addition, there is soaring housing demand in public housing. As at the end-December 2021, the average waiting time for general applicants was 5.7 years, which is nearly double of the Housing Authority’s target for providing the first flat offer to general applicants at around three years on average (Housing Authority, 2021). Identifying and securing sufficient land to meet both current and anticipated pressing housing demand becomes a key challenge of the government. In the light of this, the government has established a dedicated task force (Task Force on Land Supply) in September 2017 and appointed 30 professionals from different disciplines, such as planning, engineering, academia and think tank, to take a Marco-review on the land supply sources, look for feasible options as well as consider the pros and cons of various options. 18 land supply options were worked out for the public to make choices in the public engagement exercise. Among the 18 choices, the development area on the Periphery of Country Parks was regarded as one of the land supplies sources. This option does not only include the Hong Kong Housing Society’s studies on developing Two Pilot Areas on the Periphery of Tai Lam and Man On Shan Country Parks, but also include developing more areas on the periphery of Country Parks. The proposed option received overwhelming attention from the public and aroused debates in various perspectives. Its ecological value, recreational value, financial viability and even legitimacy were discussed. However, spatial analysis on the suitability of having residential development in Country Parks has not been conducted. Therefore, in this study, multi criteria GIS analysis is conducted to evaluate the geographic suitability of Hong Kong Country Parks for residential purpose with the consideration of various criteria.