Super Typhoon Saola (2309) affecting Hong Kong in September 2023–Forecasting Aspect

Abstract

Hong Kong was under strike from Super Typhoon Saola (2309), necessitating the issuance of the highest tropical cyclone warning signal. Saola skirted past the south-southwest of Hong Kong, bringing hurricane force winds and significant storm surge. Saola had its closest approach to Hong Kong on 1 September 2023, posing a unique challenge in forecasting and early warning for the commencement date of the new school term, where higher impact to traffic and public safety was anticipated. This paper covers the challenges on the forecasting aspect of the super typhoon. The predicted tropical cyclone track, intensity and wind structure are reviewed. Experience in this case showed that while there was not a perfect numerical weather prediction model in terms of the forecast track, intensity and wind structure of Saola, multi-model approach provided very use-ful and crucial information for operational weather warning services.