Assessment of Cereal Self-Sufficiency and Food Balance Projection in Afghanistan

Abstract

Afghanistan is overwhelmed with food insecurity that is a large percentage of the population lacks reliable access to food supplies. Grains play a vital role in the country's food security due to their importance in terms of consumption and production quantity. This paper estimates cereal self-sufficiency and then makes a food balance forecast of the three major food crops cultivated in Afghanistan over six-decades. Descriptive statistics and coarse metric techniques were employed to determine cereal self-sufficiency and food balance forecast. The econometric analysis demonstrated that (1) Afghanistan is not yet self-sufficient in meeting grain consumption, and the production and consumption ratio declined from 0.9 to 0.55 from 1979 to 2030. (2) The gap of theoretical food imbalance will increase, and by the year 2030, cereal production will likely be sufficient for only 49.8 percentage of inhabitants, leaving a high shortage equivalent to the amount required by 24.4 million people. By evaluating the quantitative food balance and the growing population change, this study presents an analysis of the emerging threat to Afghanistan's food security and suggests a solution for food security, should increase the size of public agricultural expenditure, improve the level of agriculture infrastructure, and continue to introduce a policy to achieve higher yield.