Does Climate Change Strengthen the Link between Environmental Degradation and Agricultural Output? Empirical Evidence on the Turkish Economy

Abstract

Purpose: This study investigates the relationship between agricultural output and environmental degradation, climate change, agricultural employment and economic growth in the Turkish economy for the period 1990-2020. Methodology: Direct and interactive effects of variables are investigated with the help of two different models. As an empirical method, the ARDL bounds test proposed by Pesaran et al. (2001) is utilized. After the existence of a long-run relationship, the long and short-run results are reported separately for the two models. Findings: Empirical findings show the existence of cointegration relationship between the relevant variables. Long-run findings show that increases in temperature increase agricultural output, while increases in CO2 emissions, economic growth and agricultural employment decrease agricultural output. In the short run, only economic growth has a negative effect on agricultural output. Originality: In the long run, the interactive effect of climate change and environmental degradation on agricultural output is found to be higher and more negative than the direct effects. This result reveals the importance of addressing climate change and environmental degradation together. Key words: Agriculture, Climate Change, Environmental Degradation, Time Series Analysis, Türkiye.