The Statistical Fragility of Tranexamic Acid Use in the Orthopaedic Surgery Literature: A Systematic Review of Randomized Controlled Trials

Abstract

Introduction: Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) represent the highest level of evidence in orthopaedic surgery literature, although the robustness of statistical findings in these trials may be unreliable. We used the fragility index (FI), reverse fragility index (rFI), and fragility quotient (FQ) to evaluate the statistical stability of outcomes reported in RCTs that assess the use of tranexamic acid (TXA) across orthopaedic subspecialties. Methods: PubMed, EMBASE, and MEDLINE were queried for RCTs (2010–present) reporting dichotomous outcomes with study groups stratified by TXA administration. The FI and rFI were defined as the number of outcome event reversals needed to alter the significance level of significant and nonsignificant outcomes, respectively. FQ was determined by dividing the FI or rFI by sample size. Subgroup analyses were conducted based on orthopaedic subspecialty. Results: Six hundred five RCTs were screened with 108 studies included for analysis comprising 192 total outcomes. The median FI of the 192 outcomes was 4 (IQR 2 to 5) with an associated FQ of 0.03 (IQR 0.019 to 0.050). 45 outcomes were reported as statistically significant with a median FI of 1 (IQR 1 to 5) and associated FQ of 0.02 (IQR 0.011 to 0.034). 147 outcomes were reported as nonsignificant with a median rFI of 4 (IQR 3 to 5) and associated FQ of 0.04 (IQR 0.023 to 0.051). The adult reconstruction, trauma, and spine subspecialties had a median FI of 4. Sports had a median FI of 3. Shoulder and elbow and foot and ankle had median FIs of 6. Discussion: Statistical outcomes reported in RCTs on the use of TXA in orthopaedic surgery are fragile. Reversal of a few outcomes is sufficient to alter statistical significance. We recommend reporting FI, rFI, and FQ metrics to aid in interpreting the outcomes reported in comparative trials.